Global
World
Making sense out of
the noise
Global Issues for
Global Minds on an open & friendly world
BUSINESS / FINANCE / ECONOMICS / GEOPOLITICS / HISTORY /
SOCIAL SCIENCES
Today's global issues require a broad scope of
interlinked subjects to be comprehensively understood. The "Global
Issues" page scans the news from the Anglo-Saxon or French quality press
and reports the subjects presenting an interest for its owner. "Global
Issues" is akin to "gonzo journalism" in a way which assumes the
subjectivity of one's mind perspective on topics. In the proliferation of news
channels today, my idiosyncratic focus on our common world, has no other aim as
to create curiosity and a willingness to know more from the diversity of the
subjects.
---------------------------------
Note: between
September 2012 and June 2014, I published more or less regularly, and
sometimes with a sense of urgency, a micro-blog dedicated to 'current
affairs', a collection of notes inspired by events with a global impact,
whose sources where mostly in the press I was (and am still) reading. I
wanted to build my own barrier against the flood, a 'dam' I might say,
containing and disciplining the continuous stream of online news. This
proved to be a futile attempt: if you do not want being drowned, you
should not jump first; moreover, if you have to, you must know how to
swim. As everyone has made the experience online, news gathering and
sharing is a time-consuming activity. Even professionals who are paid to
do this, journalists, find it an exhausting and disappointing job, and
let too often themselves tempted to copy and paste unchecked
informations because they are in a constant hurry to be the first to
publish something before the competition. This blog I named 'Global
World', and since I decided to stop using it, the best I could do was to
archive it and put into a single note in this current blog of
"Métamorphoses". From time to time you should still read I guess a post
dedicated to 'current affairs', but in the wit of 'gonzo-journalism'.
Let's say 'Global World' is one of the states of mind of the ongoing
'Metamorphosis' project.
Global World was published mostly through a Public Facebook Page and for just two articles in a Blogger blog. Both sources have been combined hereafter.
Global World was published mostly through a Public Facebook Page and for just two articles in a Blogger blog. Both sources have been combined hereafter.
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17th Sept. 2012
The European currency union and the banking
supervision initiative: what is at stake?
The Economist -
Euro-zone banking union: The Union Movement
2nd Dec. 2012
The new epic battle of our times is fought between
Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google in a complex field of intertwined
competition. May the bravest win the throne of Emperor of the online world and
subject them all to the law of one ring, the one, which grabs the realms of
"Big data", "Social", "Mobile" and the
"Cloud".
The Economist -
Technology Giants at War: Another game of Thrones
4th Dec. 2012
When I started working a long time ago with smtp
(mail), usenet (news) and gopher (search), I was not aware of such a global
system called the Internet; I just used the tools and focused on my tasks.
Things changed afterwards with the advent of the three magical letters 'www',
thanks to Tim-Berners Lee and the CERN. The governance of such an informal,
although rigorously designed global system, was left to a bunch of people
serving the community. But it is at risk now to be hijacked by some states who
want to limit freedom of speech and impose their regulation. Keep the Internet
open.
The Economist – Internet Governance: System
Error
8th Dec. 2012
This video by Ann Barnhardt explains with passion and
a sense of urgency the fundamentals of money, interest, the financial system,
and how does this entire subject link to morality.
Gold is Money – (video) The
Economy is Going to Explode
14th Dec. 2012
HSBC bank money laundering practices (Mexican Drug
Lords) just fined $2billion by US Justice Department, and not prosecuted.
17th Dec. 2012
Is it really liquidity, which represents the bigger
danger today for banks? What about nearly zero interest rates, which eat
margins? What about interest rates so low that there is no reason to invest
anymore but to park cash, and even have to pay for it?
Financial Times – US
Banks call for easing of Basel III
One of the more important regulatory issues of our
times, the control of Internet, and hopefully the new treaty putting more state
control was not ratified due to opposition from US, EU, Japan, and a few other
countries, but this is only the begin of the fight. Will have more impact on
our lives than say Basel III...
Financial Times
– The fight to keep a state-free Internet
20th Dec. 2012
According to a recent survey, China's inequality
income distribution coefficient (GINI) is 0.61. That would make China one of
the most unequal countries worldwide along with Brazil, Mexico, and South
Africa. Note: GINI varies from 0 (perfect equality: all income is equally
distributed between all citizens of a country - to 1: extreme inequality: all
income in a country is taken by a single individual). More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient
The Economist – Inequality in China: To
each, not according to his needs
Such enduring wit and resilience displayed by those
very long-distance runners…
The Economist – The Spartathlon: The
lunacy of the long-distance runner
9th July 2013
 |
| In the Blue - I was out of the Stream for a full year, except for this single post reflecting a state of consciousness |
25th Dec. 2013
Another case for Change Leaders...
Financial Times – Probes
into forex trading spread across globe
Litigation Risk becomes one of the most important
sources of earnings erosion in major banks (LIBOR and now the forex trade
manipulation), counting in $ billions of irrecoverable losses. In addition to a
moral case for Change, there is also a clear business case. Wake-up call to
CEOs and senior executives in the banking industry! Time to consider seriously
investing in major Change Management initiatives and become prime examples of
Integral Change practices. The link between moral hazard, mindset, cultures,
behaviors, system dysfunctions and P&L (income) statement has never been so
clear.
As it says at the end: Germany’s history is one of
monumental reverses and extremes. Miscalculations and errors...
Financial Times – Debt
crisis has left Germany vulnerable
Interesting comments from one of the FT Columnists: I
just wonder what will be the reality the Eurozone will be forced into...
Financial Times – Prompt
action required on Eurozone deflation
The over-the-counter nature of the Forex market is
cause of potential collusions between market makers...
Financial Times
– The Forex market is designed to
encourage crime
A post about finance and (not so much)
science-fiction: the over-the-counter nature of the Forex market is cause of
potential collusions between market makers and price distortions... this is
basic microeconomic principle... assuming also that markets are imperfect due
to the "asymmetry of information" (kind word for abuse of power and
greed). The solution, according to the FT columnist (see link below); move FX
transactions (+5 trillion $ daily) to exchange markets. I can only subscribe to
this view, up to the limit where such a massive market would need to be managed
by quantitative traders (algorithms), owned by the Big Banks. You can sue a
human trader to legal action. How can you do that with an algorithm?
This question is for my friend WinterMute also known
(possibly) in the Matrix as Sniper.
We've entered Flatland territory for a long time.
Expect a surge on at-the money credit risk when QE will end someday...
Financial Times
– Corporate default risk models are broken
Ukraine's mass demonstrations in favor of closer ties
with Europe is the most enjoyable news about the EU I've heard for a long time.
This is a call of love and hope for a reunited Europe of States.
Financial Times
– Mass demonstrations shake Kiev as
Ukrainians call for revolution
The risks from a massive cyber-attack on a world
financial hub such as London banking infrastructure are potentially more
serious to the stability of the financial system than the euro crisis,
according to the Bank of England. Therefore, this 'Waking Shark II' simulation
taking place tomorrow in London. It follows 'Quantum Dawn 2' simulation that
was held in New York on July this year. To my knowledge, the EU Commission and
European Central Bank foresee nothing similar on a broad range of continental
banks. EU is naturally ring-fenced against cyber-crime.
Financial Times
– London prepares for the worst with cyber
attach simulation
EU competition directorate ready to issue an
historical highest fine against the cartel of rate-fixing manipulation global
banks.
Financial Times
– Europe to unleash heavy rate-fixing
fines
The economic rationale behind Syriza's Greek far left
party proposal to deeply renegotiate the bail-out terms (i.e. large haircut on
creditors) sound pretty much relevant. Time to get out of the strict monetary
orthodoxy, which is killing the Greek economy and will never pay back creditors
and bondholders.
Financial Times
– Greek opposition leader looks to EU
elections for mandate
Lessons from history: unfortunately, often taught,
seldom learnt. FT columnist Martin Wolf takes the point with the dispute around
desert islands in the South China Sea claimed by rival powers. We are less than
one year ahead from August 1st, 2014 and the centennial celebrations of what
that catastrophic day meant for Europe.
Financial Times – China
must not copy the Kaiser’s errors
Excellent analysis on the historical parallels to be
drawn, up to a point, between Weimar's Germany in the '20s and early '30s with
today's Greece. The underlying explanations on why Anti-Semitism is on the rise
in Greece and not in Spain (which presents similar historical attitudes towards
Jews, and which has similar current day tough economic conditions) is quite
interesting and points to an in-depth cultural difference rooted in religious
beliefs.
Jerusalem Post
– Remembering Weimar in Greece
Quantitative Easing might be the equivalent of the
thought experimented conducted with Schrödinger's cat on testing quantum states
upon the state of the economy. We don't know what's the "converged"
state of the cat is (dead or alive) until we open the box, and here points the
author of the article, until stimulus is removed. This points to me to the
larger misery where our quantitative trading and risk management models lie;
basically, "the future is already dead", with the breakdown of the
traditional risk models (VaR, Corporate Credit Default Rates) and it seems
nothing came out to replace them. What jobs are doing today all those brilliant
Quant minds?
Financial Times – Dead
or Alive? The puzzle of Schrödinger’s markets
Who has ever heard - except among investment managers
and asset managers, about BlackRock? Thanks to a Briefing investigation made by
the Economist (on its print edition of 7th-13tth Dec.), there is no excuse - at
least for people working in Financial Services, not to read and know about this
company. Why is it so important? Well, beyond the gigantic scale of direct
assets under management (+4 trillion US$), BlackRock risk management platform
'Aladdin' manages indirectly +11 trillion US$ on behalf of other financial
companies, which makes it the single most powerful platform, influencing the
decisions of about 17,000 traders in the world. OpRisk Managers on call please!
The Economist – Investment Management: The
Rise of Black Rock
Primary budget surplus (before debt interests
repayment) is the main reason of the scenario, along with continuing shrinking
of the the economy in 2014, (loss of 25% since 2008), to force a way out of
Euro. The ratio of debt to GDP is too huge (nearly 160%, the second highest in
the world after Japan), to be closed by getting back fiscal policy, reducing
the budget deficit and putting pressure on wages, without creating growth. And
growth is locked without the possibility to devalue the currency in order to
boost competitive exports, and bring back work (employment rate is at 48% of
working population, compare to 74% in Germany). Draw your conclusions.
Marketwatch – Greece
leaving the Euro could be the spring surprise
Is a paranoid rhetoric coming out from Turkey's head
of state? I must admit this article leaves me a taste of bitterness. Something
looks very dysfunctional inside Turkey's ruling elite with strange connections
to a sectarian movement. The conspiracy rhetoric of the PM of a country as
large and strategically important as Turkey is sufficiently worrying.
Financial Times
– Erdogan blames outside forces for
Turkish corruption scandal
Dan Shapiro, a VP of LinkedIN comments on the launch
of a new service aimed at creating a global map of companies, tracking when
people move jobs, where they go and what skills they have. “We are due a
complete increase in the sophistication of the talent marketplace like we saw
in the financial marketplace 50 years ago ... Using this data governments will
invest in education to fill skills gaps in the economy and companies will make
workforce plans figuring out how to invest in their own people and put
facilities in the right locations.” The world of HR Recruitment has radically
changed (below boardroom level) with LinkedIN. Expect more from intelligence
gathering on + 250 mil. CVs
Financial Times
– LinkedIn sets sights on recruitment
trade
28th Dec. 2013
Killing of a high profile diplomatic figure in Lebanon
can only fuel extremes. Similar to the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri,
same method, and same objectives: split Lebanon and bring it back on the brink
of civil war.
Financial Times – Beirut
blast kills Lebanese former minister who opposed Assad
What eludes Mr Snowden – along with most of his
detractors and supporters – is that we might be living through a transformation
in how capitalism works, with personal data emerging as an alternative payment
regime. The benefits to consumers are already obvious; the potential costs to
citizens are not. As markets in personal information proliferate, so do the
externalities – with democracy the main victim.
Financial Times – The
Snowden saga heralds a radical shift in capitalism
2 janv. 2014
2014, l'année de tous les dangers pour la Grèce
Le
Figaro – Le mauvais élève grec à la tête de l’Europe
13th Jan. 2014
Very interesting article from the Economist (print
edition Jan. 11th-17th): the 'Jewishness' question is probably the most complex
of identity questions in modern times, mixing religious, civic, nationalistic
and cultural elements in a mosaic of interactions that need careful attention
to be properly understood. Attention to history, past and present, to
geography, to politics, to geopolitics, to myths and fantasies is required to
get a broad scope of this question and relevant judgment. I find this question
one of the most political pressing and urgent to be addressed in Europe today,
because of the worrying rise of past demons, namely anti-Semitism (under the
cover of anti-Zionism most of the time), far right ideology, restoration of
Nazism, interactions with Islamism, conspiracy theories... In a nice
synchronistic way, this article appears the moment I have myself come to be
attracted by this question, as I am currently reading a lot of literature about
it.
The Economist – Who
is a Jew?
Le 25 décembres dernier je pointais sur cette page, un
article du Financial Times sur la dérive autoritaire du premier ministre de
Turquie. J'identifiais des éléments d'une rhétorique paranoïde potentiellement
dangereuse dans le discours de Mr. Erdogan. Aujourd'hui, une chronique publiée
dans le Figaro va plus loin dans l'énoncé de ce point de vue. La photo
ci-dessous (credit: Corbis), est celle de la Basilique de Sainte-Sophie
d'Istanbul, transformée en musée par Atatürk en 1934 et que certains dans
l'entourage du premier ministre truc veulent reconvertir en mosquée. Un autre
article dans le figaro fait le point sur ce sujet.
Le Figaro – L’implosion du modèle turc
Shlomo Sand: Comment j’ai cessé d’être juif
(Flammarion / Café Voltaire, 2014)
L’exploration de la question se poursuit: née avec un
texte célèbre de Karl Marx (“La Question Juive”, 1844), poursuivie par
Jean-Paul Sartre (“Réflexions sur la question juive”, 1946),revue avec humour
et légèreté par Jean-Claude Grumberg (“Pour en finir avec la question juive”,
2013), la question n’en demeure pas moins très sérieuse, témoin s’il fallait en
donner un exemple vivant, cet ouvrage choc de Shlomo Sand, professeur
d’Histoire Contemporaine à l’Université de Tel-Aviv, “Comment j’ai cessé d’être
juif”, 2013. Toutes les questions que je me pose sur les liens entre judéité,
sionisme, mémoire de la Shoah, identité nationale, religieuse, laïque,
citoyenneté israélienne, diaspora... toutes ces questions commencent à trouver
des éléments de réponse pertinents, expliqués de manière claire, pédagogique
sans être simplificatrice, et avec un point de vue exigeant, personnel et
politiquement engagé. Shlomo Sand en effet, veut couper le lien entre une
identité juive conçue sur une base “ethnique” (mythique) et / ou religieuse (en
surface), et l’appartenance à un pays ‘Israël’, qui lui paraissent
verrouillées, injustes (racisme anti-arabe, régime de fait d’apartheid
vis-à-vis des territoires colonisés sur les Palestiniens) pour l’ouvrir sur ce
qu’il nomme judicieusement “l'israélité”, concept politico-culturel, ouvert sur
l’autre.
L’approfondissement de la question va se poursuivre.
17 janvier 2014
L'opinion allemande semble bel et bien intéressée par
la première guerre mondiale ; témoins ces livres publiés en cette année de
centenaire commémoratif. En effet, l'historiographie des causes du conflit ne
met plus l'accent exclusif sur la seule responsabilité de l'Allemagne. La
complexité de la situation initiale et les brouillards de l'information, des
prises de décision des différentes chancelleries, les "dilemmes du
prisonnier" de la théorie des jeux stratégiques, transposés à grande
échelle, entre l'attentat de Sarajevo (28 juin 1914) et le déclenchement
irréversible du conflit (1er août 1914), ainsi que toute la préparation à
l'affrontement dans le système européen des alliances, qui remonte au minimum à
1907 (la Triple Entente de la France, l'Angleterre et la Russie), toute cette
"machine infernale", laisse à penser pour certains historiens à une
co-responsabilité de tous les acteurs du système. Ainsi, le livre de
Christopher Clark, "Les Somnambules", qui défend cette thèse s'est
hissé en tête des ventes des livres de non-fiction en Allemagne.
Cela dit, il n'y a pas en Allemagne, contrairement à
la France ou au Royaume-Uni une politique mémorielle officielle.
Un siècle après ce que certains appellent "le
suicide de l'Europe" en 1914 (qui n'avait plus connu depuis 1815
l'affrontement généralisé de toutes ses grandes puissances, et duquel découle
presque mécaniquement la seconde guerre mondiale, la Shoah, la bombe atomique
et la guerre froide; en somme, le vingtième siècle pourrait bien être perçu par
nos descendants coincé entre 1914 et 1989, comme un grand conflit sur le temps
long des civilisations), 2014 sera je l'espère une année de compréhension et de
retour sur les racines profondes du conflit, et l'occasion donnée peut-être à
une conscience européenne citoyenne de renaître. Il me semble que cette année
aurait mérité d'être officiellement consacrée à la mémoire et à la réconciliation
de la part des instances européennes, mais ce n'est pas le cas, hélas. Le
Parlement Européen avait voté il y a deux ans une résolution pour que l'année
2014 soit l’année européenne de lutte contre le gaspillage alimentaire. C'est
grandiose. Heureusement que la société civile avance. Il suffit de faire un
tour dans les librairies. Allez-y d'ailleurs, lisez, informez-vous.
Financial Times
– Best-seller list reveals German desire
to reassess Great War
21st
Jan. 2014
Interesting trend, US funds buying risky assets from
European Banks due to stricter capital requirements and potential lending
restrictions, thanks to Basel III tougher compliance rules. More about Basel
III, regulatory supervision of banking risk, and economic woes still to come.
Financial Times
– Unicredit hands off risk to US Fund
Mariner Investment Group
24 janvier 2014
Une nouvelle crise sur les marchés des devises
émergentes. Le peso Argentin est en chute libre, au plus bas depuis 2002.
Les marchés anticipent des risques : l'indice de
volatilité (Vix) à augmenté de 12%. Les fondamentaux sont mauvais dans toute
une série de pays émergents, à commencer par l'Argentine et la Turquie, suivis
de l'Afrique du Sud, du Brésil et du Chili. Il semble que le ralentissement de
la croissance chinoise en soit une cause indirecte via la demande de matières
premières, mais aussi des crises de gouvernance dans ces pays, et une méfiance
de leurs citoyens vis-a-vis de l'état (fuite de capitaux).
Financial Times
- Argentine peso plunges after central
bank pulls support
28 janvier 2014
A la fin du XIIIè siècle, un théologien franciscain,
Pierre de Jean Olivi, rédigé le "Traité des Contrats" et se révèle
être un grand théoricien de l'économie. Il est en effet un des tous premiers à
penser les notions de rareté, d'usage, de valeur, et de capital. Il est le
premier à établir et à légitimer l'idée du profit quand elle est liée au
risque, annonçant les méthodes de gestions liées au marché des investisseurs
contemporains. Comment un frère mendiant en est-il venu à s'intéresser à
l'économie? C'est ce à quoi répond l'article du Point ci-dessous, avec le
spécialiste du moyen-âge Sylvain Piron qui a publié en 2012 ce texte perdu
depuis des siècles.
Le Point – Le franciscain qui justifia le profit
18th
Feb. 2014
EU membership opt-out rules should be defined: there
is no legitimacy for an un-democratic body like the Commission to force
countries staying in the EU by announcing retaliatory measures. First,
establish a truly democratic pan-European process (expanding and revising the
EU parliament to allow cross-countries eligibility rules for instance should be
a pre-requisite), then possibly, dream of a USE (United States of Europe).
These warnings from Ms Viviane Reding, vice-president
of the EU Commission follow her boss' statement concerning EU membership to
Scotland in case of a legal secession (through the referendum scheduled Sept.
14). It is the same blunt interference to internal member states politics based
on fear, from people who behave as though Europe was their idea. I am
personally not in favor of Scotland departing from the United Kingdom (which
is, myself quoting David Cameron with a slight irony : "there are just
seven months to save the most extraordinary country in history"); I am
neither welcoming the politics of intimidation. Mr Barroso and Ms Reding you
have no democratic legitimacy to speak as you do. If the dream of a Federalist
Europe is akin to an 'enlightened autocracy' as the one you seem to praise
through your acts, I have to say bluntly: let people speak through their votes
next May, and you will get back the trust you deserve.
20th
Feb. 2014
The conclusions of a big economic project looking at
the distribution and evolution of 'equality of opportunity' across the United
States make me think about the way economists present their ideas to the
general public.
A sound scientific approach is to conclude about
correlating factors, not direct causal factors, explaining for instance why a
poor kid has fewer chances than another to climb up the social ladder later in
life depending on the area he is living. This approach still provides hope in
policies aimed at changing things (see below the text of Annalee Lewitz).
However, the explanation of why poor people are poor
just because there exist rich people (or in the case of increasing inequality,
very rich people) somewhere else has twofold biases: one, it implies a grim
causation effect (of course, you are poor because someone else is so greedy
that it takes up most of the resources you need to do some progress in life);
second, it implies that the most effective social policy is to redistribute
back the wealth segregated by the rich (even not speaking of extreme policy
such as "coupez leur la tête!"). We know this is not true either; it
might sound true as a principle, not as an effective policy because the fabric
of social reality is much more complicated. And this is where the role a modern
State in a country comes for: to promote effective and efficient policies ('do
the right things and do them properly').
"What's important about these findings is that
they are not about causation, but correlation. Lack of mobility is part of a
pattern of overlapping social phenomena. A dim economic future evolves more
often in commuting zones where there is rigid class stratification,
segregation, poor schools, lack of social cohesion, and homes where children
have fewer adults to raise them. Changing any of these factors could affect a
child's outcome. But changing nothing still changes the future. It just brings
us one step closer to Blade Runner, with its income-segregated neighborhoods
and replicant slaves."
(Annalee Lewitz, editor of io9.com (see link below).
The website of
the "Equality of Opportunity Project":
The interactive
charts of the study designed by the NY Times:
A summary paper
of the study with additional insight into the root causes of inequality of
opportunity:
A chaud. Géopolitique quand tu nous tiens... rien de
neuf, des démocrates un peu veules, court-termistes, aveugles, sourds et muets
d'un côté; un autocrate bien décidé à rouler ses mécaniques, rempli de rêves de
gloire, cynique jusqu'à l'os de l'autre.
Le Figaro – L’Europe
a longtemps fait l’autruche à l’Est.
28 février 2014
Se rappeler que l'Ukraine - et d'autres régions aux
confins de l'Europe et de la Russie (Pologne, Russie Blanche et Pays Baltes),
est une de ces "terres de sang" lourdement marquées par la rivalité
des deux totalitarismes du vingtième siècle. La remarquable synthèse de
l'histoire de ces régions entre 1933 et 1945 a été faite par l'historien
américain Timothy Snyder (dans ce livre publié en 2012, “Terres
de sang: l’Europe entre Hitler et Staline, Gallimard). Se le rappeler,
parce que oui, le futur de l'Ukraine est important pour l'Europe et pour la
Russie. Commentant les événements, Timothy Snyder se veut confiant (lien dans
le Figaro ci-dessous). Toutefois, une partie de bras de fer diplomatique a
dores et déjà commencé autour de la péninsule de Crimée rétrocédée en 1954 par
l'Union Soviétique à la République d'Ukraine. 60% de la population est
d'origine Russe et la flotte de la Mer Noire y est stationnée. Il est évident
que Poutine ne laissera jamais partir ce territoire hors de son contrôle; le
temps long de l'histoire et l'obsession de la Russie des Tsars pour l'accès aux
mers chaudes sont là aussi pour rappeler l'importance stratégique de la Crimée.
Voila qui va singulièrement compliquer la diplomatie à l'oeuvre.
3 mars 2014
'La Crimée, poudrière de l'histoire', excellent
article publié dans Le Figaro du 28 février. L'infographie y montre la
complexité globale sur le territoire de l'Ukraine des influences historiques
multiples qui s'y sont croisées. La situation du sud de la province, et de la
Crimée en particulier, est des plus compliquées du point de vue des
nationalités, des langues, et des intérêts stratégiques de la Russie et de
l'Ukraine.
Les deux parties en présence ont tout à gagner d'une
solution négociée qui garantisse les droits de la population russe, dans le
respect de la souveraineté de l'état ukrainien. De ce point de vue, la décision
du parlement ukrainien d'interdire le russe comme langue nationale dans les
provinces de l'est, a été particulièrement maladroite. La question des
nationalités issue de la géopolitique du XIXè siècle revient en force sur le
devant de la scène européenne. En cas de basculement de la Crimée dans l'orbite
russe (par le 'coup militaire' de fait qui s'y est produit), c'est la minorité
turcophone et musulmane des Tatars qui se révoltera contre la tutelle de
Moscou, et à travers elle une nouvelle zone de déstabilisation qui affectera
aussi la Turquie. La Crimée est quasiment un cas d'école. Espérons qu'elle
donnera aussi l'exemple d'une leçon d'excellence pour l'Europe, quand
l'énervement des premiers jours de la révolution ukrainienne sera apaisé. Ce
qui revient à parier sur l'intelligence à long-terme de Poutine.
Le Figaro – La
Crimée, poudrière de l’histoire
4 mars 2014
Au coeur de la question politique dans nos sociétés:
la démocratie, ses atouts, ses dysfonctionnements, les remèdes possibles. Un
état des lieux rapide avec deux sources: le livre de David Van Reybrouck
('Contre les élections') et le dossier de la semaine dans "The
Economist".
Etat des lieux de la
démocratie
“Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but
nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom.”
ALEXIS DE TOCQUEVILLE, “DEMOCRACY IN AMERICA”
David Van Reybrouck,
ecrivain belge néerlandophone, essayiste brillant explique dans ce petit livre
très bien instruit la fatigue démocratique actuelle, entre perte de légitimité
et inefficacité, en pose le diagnostic "c'est la faute à la
démocratie représentative élective", après avoir démonté les approches
partielles du populisme, de la technocratie et de la démocratie directe, et
propose un remède basé sur le principe de tirage au sort comme forme nouvelle
de la représentation. La démocratie par tirage au sort a vu le jour dans
l'Athènes classique du Ve siècle avant J.C. et est remise à l'étude
actuellement dans de nombreux travaux de politologues renommés.
A
propos de la démocratie athénienne par tirage au sort des citoyens aux
fonctions de l’exécutif, du législatif et du judiciaire:
"La fonction de ‘professionnel
de la politique’, que nous trouvons tous parfaitement normale aujourd’hui,
aurait produit sur un Athénien moyen l’impression d’une incongruité, d’une
absurdité. Aristote y associait une réflexion très intéressante sur la liberté:
‘le principe fondamental du régime démocratique c’est la liberté (…) Une des
marques de la liberté, c’est d’être tour à tour gouverné et gouvernant.’ Une
pensée vieille de vingt-cinq siècles, mais toujours d’une justesse stupéfiante.
La liberté, ce n’est pas: être soi-même toujours au pouvoir. Ce n’est pas non
plus: ne pas avoir à respecter le pouvoir. Et encore moins: se résigner
passivement au pouvoir. La liberté, c’est l’équilibre entre autonomie et
loyauté, entre gouverner et être gouverné. Aujourd’hui, à une époque où
‘l’oligarchisation’ de la démocratie sévit avec bien plus de virulence (…),
c’est une vérité qui semble totalement oubliée.”
David
Van Reybrouck, Contre les Elections, Actes Sud / Babel, 2014, p. 83
Par
une belle synchronicité, la caricature hebdomadaire dans "The
Economist" de la semaine pourrait illustrer la 'tragédie des élections'
(ou: 'comment tuer la démocratie en la réduisant à une représentation
élective') - illustration du propos de David Van Reybrouck.
Urgent
times do not call for urgent action, but for a deep-dive breath instead, into
the realm of fundamentals: thinking the big ideas that define our
society.
The
Economist – What’s
gone wrong with Democracy (essay)
8 mars 2014
Commentaire de la gauche radicale grecque (Syriza) sur
l'Ukraine, en date du 27 février, avant l'intervention pro-russe en Crimée. A
noter qu'Alexis Tsipras, le leader du parti est le seul candidat officiellement
déclaré à ce jour à la Présidence de la Commission Européenne.
La guerre dans le cyber espace est une réalité, les
cartes du virtuel se superposent aux cartes d'états-majors; aux troupes et
matériel qui se déploient dans le monde visible répondent d'invisibles agents
qui infectent les structures technologiques, les infrastructures vitales d'un
pays: réseau électrique, usines, hôpitaux, centres gouvernementaux, banques. Un
virus très élaboré du nom d'Ouroboros se ballade depuis quelques mois,
principalement en Ukraine, et aussi en Lithuanie. L'origine russe du programme
malveillant est évoquée, mais dans cette nouvelle version de la guerre secrète,
les preuves ne sont jamais définitives.
Financial Times
– Cyber
Snake plagues Ukraine networks
18th
March 2014
"Politicians, like academics or ordinary
citizens, will naturally have competing views about how to view their national
history. But the abuse of political power to impose a single, authorised
version of history on a nation’s schools and mass media is when education
crosses the line into brainwashing. As we are seeing in Russia today, a public
in the grip of a nationalist version of history can be a dangerous thing."
Financial Times
– How
wars can be started by history textbooks
21 mars 2014
Logique. Vous avez dit "Transnistrie"...
C'est où ça? Vous parlez de la Syldavie? Nous allons envoyer notre courageux
reporter Tintin faire une enquête.
22nd
March 2014
Time to start remembering the sequence of events 100
years ago (although that one, the assassination in Sarajevo of the heir of the
Austro-Hungarian Empire, Franz-Ferdinand and his wife Sophie, happened
precisely on June 28th, 1914), and time to start meditating that a gunshot
triggered the most cataclysmic change in European history, a change that we can
still feel the ripple effects today. This is the long shadow of history.
Financial Times
– Sarajevo,
the crossroads of history
Un blog politique à connaître, "La Liberté, sinon
rien" du journaliste et auteur Jean-Paul Marthoz. Excellent article sur la
Russie.
26th
March 2014
Good news. There is a surge in the corporate 'green
bonds' market (environmentally friendly projects). According to the forecast of
SEB, a Swedish bank that developed them for the first time in 2007, green bonds
will account for 10-15% of the total corporate bond-market by 2020.
'The Economist' provides as a latest example in this
trend the case of Unilever, which has issued a $415m bond to finance its own
waste reduction program (so far all bond issuances have been to fund renewable
energy products).
The Economist –
Green
Bonds: Spring in the Air
Financial Times
– Climate
focus drive demand for ‘green’ bonds
7th
April 2014
It is starting today, 7th April, in India: the biggest
democratic election in the world. It will take five weeks over nine phase of
voting. It will involve about 815 million citizens, from outcasts, slum-city
dwellers, to the mega-rich of Mumbaï, from the Himalayan hills of Himachal
Pradesh to the tropical forest of Assam, to the shores of Coromandel, the
backwaters of Kerala, the parched desert of eastern Rajasthan, the holy city of
Benares, the ugliness of Delhi, the majesty of the large Hindu temples above
the villages in Tamil Nadu. India will elect its next Prime Minister.
Everyone says it will be this man pictured below,
Narendra Modi, chief minister of the successful state of Gujarat, the choice of
the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Hindu nationalist party. And a lot of people
praise him for his achievements, his economic audacity, his corruption clean
record.
Yet, "The Economist" in its print edition of
this week puts on the front page the provocative title "Can anyone stop
Narendra Modi"? And yet, despite its preference for policies well rounded
in sound economic practices, entrepreneurship, red tape reduction, "The
Economist" says it is not supporting this man. Why so?
This is because this newspaper, for its honor, puts
Ethics on top of its values. This man is too much divisive for India, too much
sectarian and a risky figure for such a volatile and immense country. What is
at stake is bloodshed in riots, pogroms, betweens Hindus and Muslims. This man
shows not regret for practices, which lead to massive killings in his own state
of Gujarat, he shows no repentance and thrives on the rhetoric of the BJP's
party ideology of purity, nation, race, and religion. This is why; according to
the "The Economist" this man is dangerous.
And this is why I like to so much reading this
newspaper. It takes risks. History has proven sometimes it was wrong in its
choices, sometimes, most of the time; it is right in its analyses. In this case
the newspaper's choice is against sectarian hatred.
The Economist –
Can
anyone stop Narendra Modi?
8 avril 2014
Non seulement la faute de la France, mais la honte de
la France...
Rappel des faits vingt ans après le génocide au
Rwanda.
Merci à cet article de "La Libre"
(anciennement, "La Libre Belgique") et une fameuse claque dans la
figure de la bien-pensance politique française.
France: shame on you!
La Libre – La
faute de la France
21 avril 2014
Excellente analyse dans 'Le Monde' (trad. de
l'anglais) de Timothy Snyder, l'historien remarqué des 'Terres de Sang' sur les
motivations de Poutine, la propagande, et le fumet de l'histoire qui persiste à
nous chatouiller les narines.
Le Monde – La
rhétorique guerrière de Poutine
26 avril 2014
Nous y sommes, nous le savons, nous pensons que c'est
logique, la machine, le système, ont pris le pas, nous sommes des consommables,
nous tous, vous et moi, tous, absolument, tous disjonctés d'une sphère
d'appropriation prédatrice des richesses du monde en désertification. Demain
était hier, la science-fiction est une archéologie de la connaissance. Tout y
est écrit depuis des décennies. Aujourd'hui ce sont les sociologues, les
économistes qui parlent, qui critiquent, le dernier rempart de la raison, la
fonction critique, qu'il est vital de préserver, dont il est urgent de rappeler
l'exigence fondatrice de lendemains qui peut-être, peut-être, verront le jour,
un jour.
Article du monde, interview de la sociologue Saskia
Sassen, à propose de son livre "Expulsions:
Brutality and Complexity in the Global Economy".
30 avril 2014
Belgique, en équilibre instable au soir du 25 mai.
Scénarios avec infographie sur La Libre (voir commentaire). Intéressant pour
les politologues, les amateurs de scénarios, les indécis. Vote utile, vote
sanction, vote passion, pas de vote? Chaque voix est importante. Voter ou ne
pas voter est un premier choix, selon que l'on habite en région Flamande,
Wallonne, ou Bruxelloise, les choix sont différents, selon ses opinions enfin.
Dans l'analyse de La Libre tous les scénarios pivotent autour du score de la
N-VA. Sauf grosses surprises, les choix vont découler de ce résultat
déterminant.
La Libre – Voici
ce qui vous attend, le soir du 25 mai
12 juin 2014
dans le fond... le rabottage possible des pensions...
la banque nationale en Belgique et ses recommendations peu avisées... Delhaize
qui licencie... Ecolo à la dérive (pardon, en réflexion profonde)... minces
tracas dans un bruit de fond du monde que nous n'entendons plus... car Guerre
et Paix... voila les fondamentaux de toujours... et donc un vaste arc de crise
qui va du Liban à l'Iran en passant par la Syrie et l'Irak, hier, aujourd'hui,
demain... car la guerre civile en Syrie et celle qui s'est réamorcée pour de
bon en Irak, font partie de la même configuration d'une guerre totale et
internationale qui nous touche aussi indirectement et qui rend toute cette
région du monde et leurs voisins extrêmement volatile... voyons un peu l'arc
d'influence, en plus des pays cités, il y a Israël évidemment, et la Jordanie,
et l'Egypte, puis au nord la Turquie, et plus à l'est, l'Afghanistan et le
Pakistan... et ces guerres qui frappent durement les civils depuis des
années.... des gens comme ceux qui se balladent tranquilles dans nos rues, sauf
que dans ces pays en guerre, ces gens... bombardés, décapités, trucidés,
tronçonnés, gazés, déportés... alors voila le quotidien du monde... guerre et
paix... alors vos gueules, fermez-là, soyez heureux d'être en vie, tout
simplement, essayez d'améliorer votre quotidien et ce monde au lieu de râler
tout le temps du haut de votre mauvaise conscience.
Financial Times
– Baghdad
launches air strikes on insurgents in Mosul
---------------------------------
I find it quite significant I stopped publishing after that date, and this last post about the situation in Irak. I felt nausea for what was, and still is, happening there as well as in neighborhood Syria. The end of the blog does not imply the end of 'Global World' as I said at the beginning of this post. It is just a question of reshuffling the inputs and the outputs.
There are multiple ways to testify against inhumanity and fight evil.
---------------------------------
I find it quite significant I stopped publishing after that date, and this last post about the situation in Irak. I felt nausea for what was, and still is, happening there as well as in neighborhood Syria. The end of the blog does not imply the end of 'Global World' as I said at the beginning of this post. It is just a question of reshuffling the inputs and the outputs.
There are multiple ways to testify against inhumanity and fight evil.
---------------------------------
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